QUANTITATIVE Whitepaper

The Price of Intelligence 

Hyper 5 spent $1.1 trillion on capex in the past five years, with $5.3 trillion more expected by 2030  



The AI build-out is now larger and more concentrated than the dot-com infrastructure boom. What signals should investors be watching?


The Price of Intelligence - Whitepaper Cover

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Learn how the Hyper 5’s historic capex build-out and potential shift from cash to debt could reshape investment risk.

The artificial intelligence build-out has reached historically extreme investment intensity and unprecedented concentration. The Hyper 5 — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle — have already spent $1.1 trillion on capex over the past five years, with Visible Alpha sell-side consensus forecasting a further $5.3 trillion between 2026 and 2030. New research from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Quantitative Research & Solutions team examines the current capex cycle through the interaction between investment growth, earnings, cash flow and the cost of capital. While the build-out has so far been funded largely through cash flow, the key risk is a transition from cash- to debt-funded investment before returns on AI infrastructure validate the spending.


Explore the findings further.

Join our upcoming webinar, Anatomy of a Capex Melt-Up for an expert discussion of the paper’s findings. Learn to assess capacity growth, identify overcapacity risk and monitor constraints and financing shifts.

Increase your competitive edge with our latest cutting-edge research

Our Quantitative Research & Solutions (QRS) group harness the depth and uniqueness of S&P Global’s data and analytics to deliver forward-looking, data-driven insights. Through advanced quantitative methods, we transform complex information into actionable intelligence across markets, industries, and investment strategies. 





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