The artificial intelligence build-out has reached historically extreme investment intensity and unprecedented concentration. The Hyper 5 — Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta and Oracle — have already spent $1.1 trillion on capex over the past five years, with Visible Alpha sell-side consensus forecasting a further $5.3 trillion between 2026 and 2030. New research from S&P Global Market Intelligence’s Quantitative Research team examines the current capex cycle through the interaction between investment growth, earnings, cash flow and the cost of capital. While the build-out has so far been funded largely through cash flow, the key risk is a transition from cash- to debt-funded investment before returns on AI infrastructure validate the spending.
Webinar | Explore the findings further
Watch the webinar replay, Anatomy of a Capex Melt-Up for an expert discussion of the paper’s findings. Learn to assess capacity growth, identify overcapacity risk and monitor constraints and financing shifts.
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