Metal Price Assumptions: S&P Global Ratings Expects Mixed Outlook Amid Trade Tensions And Slowing Economic Expansion

Dec 13, 2018 | By: Vishal Kulkarni, CFA (S&P Global Ratings)

S&P Global Ratings has updated its price assumptions for metals for 2019-2020 and assigned assumptions for 2021, reflecting current market conditions and demand supply fundamentals peculiar for each commodity. Demand fundamentals generally remain healthy for all metals--however, we expect growth momentum to slow down a bit, especially in the second half of 2019--as the risks emerge related to the possibility of a financing squeeze in a mature credit cycle, trade disruption from a further escalation of the U.S.-China tariff dispute, and vulnerabilities in emerging markets. Still, we expect GDP growth in the U.S. near 3%, in the Eurozone near 2%, in Latin America at 2.5%, and in China at 6% to 7% in while that country adheres to stricter environmental standards.

We're revising our price assumptions for 2019-2020 and assigning 2021 price expectations in accordance with our methodology (see "FAQ: How S&P Global Ratings Formulates, Uses, And Reviews Commodity Price Assumptions," published Sept. 28, 2018).

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