By Alex De Leon | 22 August 2017
The commodity market continues its upward trajectory, with all of S&P Capital IQ's consensus price forecasts for 2017 being higher than the 2016 averages. However, as of Aug. 17, nearly half of the consensus prices are forecast to decline in 2019, with the latest set of forecasts being more bearish than the previous month's forecasts.
Precious metals' consensus price forecasts continue to be positive for 2017. Gold, silver and palladium forecasts show significantly higher prices for 2017 and the next two years. Palladium's 2017 price is 30% higher than 2016's average. According to PJSC Norilsk Nickel Co., the palladium market increase is mainly driven by the growing demand of the automotive industry and by insufficient primary supply.
Forecasts for base metals remain optimistic for 2017 and continuing into 2018. The expected boom of electric vehicles has caused analysts to focus on battery metals, and the consensus is for an 83% increase in the cobalt price in 2017, compared with the 2016 average. Some companies, such as Vedanta Resources Plc, are exploring ways to produce primary cobalt, rather than only recovering it as a copper-cobalt alloy.
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