When Headcount Counts: How Workforce Composition Affects Deal Pricing

Private equity deal flow to AI firms surged by 70% YoY in 2024. As AI companies mature, their workforce composition is emerging as a key factor in determining valuation. Private equity firms and corporate buyers are heavily investing in late-stage AI companies- often at premium prices . Are they truly receiving return on their investments?

Join us to explore how workforce dynamics are influencing AI deal flow and investments. In this session, we’ll use headcount data to dive into AI deal pricing trends, uncover who’s paying above or below the “headcount valuation,” and track how workforce composition has evolved over time.

You will learn:

• What the latest Headcount Analytics reveal about the valuation landscape for private equity deals in 2024, and the implications for 2025
• How to leverage emerging themes to anticipate shifts in investment trends before they become mainstream
• Who are the key players expanding their workforce, and what this mean for the balance between sales and engineering growth in AI firms
• How to strategically identify firms poised for fundraising success in the next 12 months based on workforce dynamics
• What it mean when deals deviate from a deal value/headcount correlation trend

Speakers

Kelly Bryant (Moderator)

Product Manager, Headcount Analytics
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Ilja Hauerhof

Director, New Product Development & Research, Private Markets
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Drew Bowers

Senior Quantitative Research Analyst - Private Markets
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Charlie Bovard

Digital Engagement & Training Lead - Product Management
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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