Vale dam burst — Implications for the iron ore marketplace and Brazilian exports

The Corrego do Feijao dam burst on Jan. 25 is the second such disaster at Vale SA operations since Nov. 5, 2015, when Samarco Fundao dam failed. We assess the market scenarios that may develop in this fast-moving situation and conclude that the market will be balanced by marginal Chinese operations. In the immediate aftermath, the disaster added US$15/t to spot prices for 62% Fe iron ores, while the company's share price went from trading at an industry premium to eroding all gains made since Jan. 1, 2018.

From the supply chain side, S&P Global Market Intelligence Panjiva data shows Brazil’s total iron ore exports average 32.1 million tons per month in the 12 months to Nov. 30, so while the outage will be disruptive it may prove manageable.

Be armed with insights on Vale dam incident on the iron ore market:

  • Learn about supply shortfall and our forecasts on iron ore prices in 2019
  • Review Vale's contribution to Brazilian iron ore exports prior the incident
Download report >

Download Report

Form Header

Copyright © 2019 by S&P Global Market Intelligence, a division of S&P Global Inc. All rights reserved. No content may be reproduced or distributed without the prior written permission of S&P Global Market Intelligence or its affiliates. The content is provided on an “as is” basis.

Facebook LinkedIn You Tube

Copyright © S&P Global Market Intelligence Inc. All rights reserved.
Privacy Policy | Cookie Notice | Terms of Use | Disclosures | Do Not Sell My Personal Information