Uncertainty is the New Certainty: Q4 2025 Trade & Supply Chain Outlook

Continued change in US trade policy is the one constant supply chains face as we head into 2026, firms are turning to look at strategic supply chain options both to deal with their positions in the US and further afield. Join our experts as we unpack the key supply chain issues for the rest of 2025 and into 2026.

• Tariffs in deals in the US: With tariff investigations yet to be completed and court challenges continuing there are still plenty of changes ahead of trade policy in the US. More trade deals will be signed – not least of which is the renegotiation of USMCA - but those already in place are proving difficult to implement.
• Opportunities elsewhere: The outlook for global trade growth is about more than just tariffs, with the prospect of new and revised trade deals including ASEAN-China 3.0, EU-Mercosur and more raise the prospect of new supply chain investment opportunities. There’s still challenges to consider though from conflicts, sanctions and climate change.
• Setting strategy: Price and cost negotiations as well as investment in global regionalization will prove key to ensuring the pass-through of higher of tariffs and to leverage emerging trade growth opportunities in a multi-polar, but still interconnected world in 2026.

Speakers

Chris Rogers

Head of Supply Chain Research
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Agnieszka Maciejewska, M.A.

Associate Director, Models & Scenarios, Global Intelligence & Analytics
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Eric Oak

Senior Supply Chain Analyst
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Ines Nastali

Senior Supply Chain Analyst
S&P Global Market Intelligence