S&P Global Market Intelligence

Mexico’s proximity and preferential access to the US market will remain its main competitive advantages to attract nearshoring investment, and Mexico already has surpassed mainland China as the largest supplier to the US. However, the scheduled review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) will generate uncertainty over trade rules until 2026.

This report analyses the national trends and regional disparities of nearshoring to Mexico.

Import duties are central to US President Donald Trump’s economic and foreign policy, and he has many regulatory and legislative mechanisms to deploy them. Initial policy plans include new tariffs on mainland China, delayed action against Canada and Mexico, a proposed reciprocal tariff system, a wide range of investigations through April 1, and the potential for other early, large-scale duties. Reactions by other countries or regions could include reciprocal tariffs (such as those already applied by mainland China), purchase programs or policy alignment (shown by Canada and Mexico), while corporations have begun implementing strategy playbooks developed during the first Trump administration.

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