State of the Market: Mining - Q4'25

The final quarter of 2025 was marked by persistent volatility and shifting policy dynamics across the metals and mining sector. Elevated inflation, evolving trade policies, and renewed geopolitical tensions created an environment of uncertainty for producers and consumers alike.

Despite this backdrop, metals markets strengthened meaningfully. Precious metals rallied sharply, reflecting risk aversion and macro hedging, while mining equities delivered strong gains across most major exchanges. Strategic minerals remained central to global negotiations, culminating in a cautious U.S.–China détente that included partial rollback of tariffs and a temporary easing of restrictions on rare earths. These policy shifts unlocked new project activity and prompted governments to deepen support for domestic supply chains through targeted investments and price stabilization mechanisms, highlighting the strategic urgency to secure energy transition metals.

Industry consolidation accelerated, highlighted by landmark M&A deals such as those involving Anglo American and Teck Resources, along with growing speculation about a Rio Tinto and Glencore tie-up. Exploration budgets edged lower, with gold and copper holding up better than other commodities; meanwhile, Canada remained the global leader in exploration activity. Grassroots exploration budgets sank to a record-low share, underscoring a shift in focus toward late-stage projects and raising concerns about the long-term pipeline

Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the December 2025 quarter, provide our near-term outlook and discuss these key trends and topics:

• Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges
• Commodity price trends, mine costs and emissions
• M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics

Speakers

Jason Holden

Senior Principal Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
S&P Global Energy

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Luiz Amaral

Senior Analyst, Metals & Mining Research
S&P Global Energy

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Monica Ramirez

Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
S&P Global Energy

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