State of the Market: Mining Q3'26

The September quarter of 2026 was defined by a shift in the drivers of metals prices: The energy shock from the US-Israel war with Iran broadened into a wider inflation problem, central banks pivoted from easing to tightening and investors grew wary of the growth outlook. Disruption around the Strait of Hormuz kept crude elevated, but gasoline and diesel were the larger inflationary drivers, lifting fuel, freight and input costs. Major central banks, led by the US Federal Reserve, raised rates, and long-dated bond yields climbed to multidecade highs. Rising interest rates threatened the demand resilience nonferrous metals showed through the first half of the year, as tighter financial conditions weighed on industrial activity. Trade policy added another layer of volatility, as US Section 232 tariff uncertainty continued to pull copper into the US, while tighter Indonesian control over nickel ore output underscored how far government discretion shapes supply.

Commodity markets diverged. Copper remained the standout base metal, with concentrate scarcity still the tightest part of the value chain, though elevated prices began to prompt substitution and deferred purchasing. Precious metals lost momentum as rising real yields drew investors toward income-bearing assets. Battery and critical mineral markets remained under pressure: Inventory concerns whipsawed lithium prices, while the continued move toward lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) chemistries weighed on cobalt. Exploration budgets reached their highest level in more than a decade, but spending remained concentrated on known deposits and existing mines, positive project milestones declined and financing conditions tightened late in the period.

Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the September 2026 quarter and our short-term outlooks for the fourth quarter and 2027. We will discuss the following key trends and topics:

• Macroeconomic and geopolitical market drivers
• Commodity price trends, market balances and mine costs
• M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics

Speakers

Nick Trickett

Associate Director, Short Term Analytics, Critical Minerals
S&P Global Energy

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Patricia Barreto

Associate Director, Short-term Analytics, Critical Minerals
S&P Global Energy

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Francesca Price

Senior Principal Analyst – Critical Mineral Markets
S&P Global Energy

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