State of the Market - Mining Q3'25

Macroeconomic uncertainty persisted during the September 2025 quarter as the US continued its tariff strategy. By the end of August, effective global tariff rates applied by the US were at about 19% — the highest level since 1933. US-China trade tensions escalated again after a period of relative calm, with China increasing scrutiny of rare earth exports. A slowing economy prompted both the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada to reduce rates, even as the specter of resurgent inflation loomed. Despite persistent economic uncertainty, global equity markets remained strong, with the TSX hitting an all-time high of 30,687 on Oct. 6, while the Dow Jones hit an all-time high close of 45,632 on Aug. 22.

For the mining industry, these mixed signals were reflected in a lackluster performance for many metal prices. The notable exception was gold, which moved continually upward, breaking $3,800/oz by quarter's end and continuing its upward movement into October. Copper remained relatively range-bound during the bulk of the September quarter before breaking higher in mid-September, shortly after the announcement of the Anglo-Teck merger.
The planned merger was one of the most significant news stories for the mining sector this year and by far the largest reported deal for 2025. The resulting major copper producer will boast annual copper production of 1.2 million metric tons, which is expected to increase to 1.35 MMt by 2027.

For an in-depth discussion of these key trends and topics, join our analysts as we recap the September 2025 quarter and provide our near-term outlook. The presentation will cover:

• Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges
• Commodity price trends, drivers and estimates
• M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics

Speakers

Kevin Murphy

Director of Metals & Mining Research
S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Elias Saba

Research Analyst, Metals & Mining Research
S&P Global Commodity Insights

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Karla Rivera

Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
S&P Global Commodity Insights

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