State of the Market: Mining Q2'26

The June quarter of 2026 was defined by a sharp divergence across metals and mining markets: Upstream supply chains tightened, refined metal balances softened in some markets and geopolitical risk continued to reshape costs, trade flows and procurement strategies. The US-Israel war with Iran remained a central macro driver, feeding into higher fuel, freight and reagent costs. A tripling of sulfur prices to more than $1,000 per metric ton was significant, increasing cost and availability risks for high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) nickel and solvent extraction-electrowinning (SX-EW) copper producers. Trade policy added another layer of volatility. The quarter saw further fragmentation in steel and metals trade, with US Section 232 tariffs of 50% on steel and aluminum reinforcing pressure on seaborne trade flows, while the European Commission published new country-specific steel quotas ahead of measures taking effect July 1, 2026.

Commodity markets were mixed. Copper remained the standout base metal, with concentrate availability still the tightest part of the value chain, while precious metals lost some momentum through the quarter after a strong start to 2026. Battery and critical mineral markets remained bifurcated: sustained pressure from rising visible inventories weakened lithium carbonate prices in China, while shifting battery chemistries and growing secondary supply challenged cobalt prices, despite upstream tightness.
Exploration and development indicators were volatile throughout the quarter, and capital-market signals softened late in the period.

Join our analysts as we provide a recap of the June 2026 quarter and provide our near-term outlooks for the second half of the year. We will discuss the following key trends and topics:

• Macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges
• Commodity price trends, mine costs and emissions
• M&A, finance, exploration and development metrics

Speakers

Katherine Matthews

Principal Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions (moderator)
S&P Global Energy

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Joenelle Donato

Analyst, Nickel, Non-Ferrous Markets
S&P Global Energy

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Louanne De Sales

Analyst, Mine Economics & Emissions
S&P Global Energy

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Pranay Shukla

Director, Metals Trading Research
S&P Global Energy

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