Q3 ’26 Outlook for U.S. Banks: How Oil Prices Could Impact the Fed’s Next Rate Move

Crude oil prices are determined in a global market — shaped by OPEC+ supply decisions, Middle East geopolitics, and shifting international demand — yet their impact lands directly on the U.S. economy and consumer. As the world's largest oil producer and exporter, the U.S. feels every price swing on both sides — supporting energy-producing regions even as it lifts costs at the pump — making oil a decisive force on inflation and, critically, on inflation expectations that will help shape the Federal Reserve's next rate move.

For U.S. banks, that chain runs straight to the balance sheet. Consumer spending has remained resilient despite recent economic shocks, but sustained energy-driven inflation could slow growth, while a prolonged higher-for-longer rate environment continues to pressure funding costs. Credit quality remains stable, though weaker consumer or labor market conditions could test the sector's resilience. This executive webinar will connect the international oil outlook to the U.S. rate path and examine how volatile crude prices and persistent inflation could affect bank profitability, credit quality, and loan performance.

Attendees will gain practical insights into the macroeconomic forces shaping the banking outlook and the risks and opportunities for institutions, particularly those with exposure to energy-producing regions.

Speakers

Joe Mantone

Editorial Senior Lead, US Financial Institutions News
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Zain Tariq

Senior Analyst, Financial Institutions Research
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Kurt Barrow

Head of Oil, Fuels and Chemicals
S&P Global Energy

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