Q2 2026 Outlook for U.S. Commercial Bank Performance: Navigating the Stablecoin Era — Implications for Bank Deposits, Payments, and the Competitive Landscape

Stablecoins are emerging as a new settlement and liquidity layer within digital financial infrastructure rather than remaining a purely crypto-native phenomenon.

While consumer adoption in developed markets remains limited, institutional use cases in cross-border payments, treasury management, and tokenized capital markets are gaining traction. Nonbanks are already seeking bank charters to support stablecoin and digital asset businesses, while incumbent banks are weighing how broader adoption could reshape deposit competition and erode fee revenue tied to traditional payment rails.

During this discussion, FIG Research Director Nathan Stovall will review his proprietary projections for commercial bank performance, covering the funding dynamics shaping the back half of 2026 and how they will impact bank earnings and future strategic decisions. Fintech Research Director Jordan McKee will share key findings from research on stablecoin adoption — examining where the technology is gaining genuine traction, which players are competing to control the emerging stablecoin value chain, and what it all means for the future of traditional banking.

Speakers

Maureen McKenna (Moderator)

Head of Partnerships and Business Development
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Jordan McKee

Head of FinTech Research
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Nathan Stovall

Director FIG Research
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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