QUANTITATIVE Whitepaper

Margin Math

A $1.2 trillion expense propagates through supply chains in 2025

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Explore how tariffs, global supply chains, and market dynamics are affecting margins


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Inside the $1.2 Trillion Cost Shock

This research finds that companies are now expected to pay at least $1.2 trillion more in 2025 expenses than was anticipated on Jan. 1. Revenue expectations have risen, but earnings expectations have fallen, producing a 64-basis-point contraction in margin, according to 15,000 sell-side analysts contributing to the S&P Capital IQ and Visible Alpha Estimates. If the pattern holds for firms without sell-side coverage, the cost shock would exceed $1.2 trillion in lost profit.

Want to dive deeper?

Watch our on-demand webinar, Stronger Together: Tariff Shocks, Market Swings, and the Power of Resilient Networks, for expert analysis of the findings.

Get the data

The Macro Insights solution connects 6 datasets from S&P Global spanning trade flows, workforce dynamics, sentiment, estimates and more to quantify how disruption moves through goods, capital, and labor.

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