Hormuz De Facto Blockage: Oil Flow Disruption, Freight Volatility and the Tanker Market Reset

What would a prolonged disruption through the Strait of Hormuz mean for global oil flows, freight markets, and tanker economics?

Join S&P Global Energy experts as they examine how escalating geopolitical risk is reshaping crude flows, freight volatility, and tanker market dynamics — and what this could mean for pricing, trade routes, and risk exposure.

AGENDA:

1) Situation update: What “de facto closure” means operationally (risk, safety, contracting).
2) Traffic & flow disruption: AIS transit collapse; Gulf crude loadings/export impact and what is still moving.
3) Tanker freight shock: dirty and clean route impacts; war-risk, repositioning and the “two-phase” rate response.
5) Re-routing & supply chain adaptations: Red Sea & other alternatives, diversion economics.
6) Tanker company implications: Earnings sensitivity, chartering strategy, safety/insurance stance, and cashflow upside/downside.

Key talking points:

• Near-halt in Hormuz transits: Ship traffic collapsed, with Gulf crude exports/loadings down sharply.
• Oil Price volatility and Middle East dislocation.
• Freight rates: initial spike, then volatile normalization as ships reposition. Route shock examples.
• Operational constraint is safety/risk, not insurance availability. (NorthStandard noted cover is available, but owners are not required to undertake voyages deemed factually unsafe under war clauses.)
• US/Venezuela/Brazil/Guyana/WAF supporting ton-miles, and confirmed they are keeping vessels outside Hormuz while monitoring security/underwriter guidance.

Speakers

Mark Esposito

Senior Principal Research Analyst, Commodities at Sea
S&P Global Energy

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Fotio Katsoulas

Lead Analyst, Tanker Shipping and Alternative Fuels
S&P Global Energy

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Emily O'Flaherty

Senior Director, Product Management
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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