QUANTITATIVE Whitepaper
The Scarcity Premium
Constrained supply boosts earnings expectations on lower volumes, U.S. & LatAm lead
Explore how energy earnings forecasts rose despite lower expected output, and what this divergence signals for scarcity premiums and AI-linked cost pressures.
S& Global Platts Crude & Refined Products Market
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Learn how tightening energy supply, scarcity premiums and AI-linked demand are reshaping earnings expectations.
Energy earnings expectations have moved sharply higher as observable supply expectations tighten. Since Jan. 1, sell-side analysts have lowered observable energy production expectations by 1.9%, or 1.5 million boe/d, while raising energy earnings forecasts by 57%, or $227 billion. This divergence signals a market revaluation consistent with a scarcity premium: higher profits despite lower expected output.
New research from S&P Global’s Quantitative Research & Solutions team explores how tightening supply, rising margin expectations and AI-linked demand are reshaping energy market dynamics. As AI-linked growth increases demand for energy and other constrained inputs, scarcity in one part of the system can manifest as cost pressure elsewhere.
Access the webinar replay for more insights from S&P Global experts.
Watch our on-demand webinar, Sell-Side Signals & Supply Chains: What’s Worked & Looking Ahead, to see how sell-side expectations and supply-chain relationships can be combined to create a clearer, forward-looking view of earnings risk and resilience.
Increase your competitive edge with our latest cutting-edge research
Our Quantitative Research & Solutions (QRS) group harness the depth and uniqueness of S&P Global’s data and analytics to deliver forward-looking, data-driven insights. Through advanced quantitative methods, we transform complex information into actionable intelligence across markets, industries, and investment strategies.
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