QUANTITATIVE Whitepaper

Sell-side signals short-term pain, long-term gain

$1T+ in additional costs hit 2025 margins, AI buoys profitability beyond

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Explore how global margin expectations were cut in 2025 and how the recovery was attributable to just 10 AI-led companies. 


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S& Global Platts Crude & Refined Products Market

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Learn how unexpected cost shocks and AI concentration are reshaping 2025 margin performance.

Global margin expectations were revised lower in the first half of 2025 as sell-side analysts priced in more than $1 trillion of unanticipated costs. By mid-year, the reset was largely complete. Fiscal year 2025 margin growth fell from 80 bps to 45 bps — still positive year over year, but with a decisive 35 bps haircut locked in as fourth-quarter earnings season progressed. New research from S&P Global’s Quantitative Research & Solutions team reveals that the recovery is not broad-based. Roughly two-thirds of total net earnings recovery during 2025 is attributable to just 10 companies, all centered on the AI trade. These companies account for nearly all the expected margin recovery, while the broader market remains below January expectations.

Want to dive deeper?

Watch our on-demand webinar, Sell-Side Signals & Supply Chains: What’s Worked & Looking Ahead, for expert analysis of the findings.

Increase your competitive edge with our latest cutting-edge research

Our Quantitative Research & Solutions (QRS) group harness the depth and uniqueness of S&P Global’s data and analytics to deliver forward-looking, data-driven insights. Through advanced quantitative methods, we transform complex information into actionable intelligence across markets, industries, and investment strategies. 

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