CAISO and ERCOT Power Forecasts
by the Hour

Although California is thought to be the leader in renewable energy in the U.S., Texas has more installed capacity and is quickly catching up in its renewable market share. 

Our Power Forecast solution projects 2,090 MW of wind and 12,450 MW of solar generation in CAISO by 2025, in addition to the 3.8 GW of behind-the-meter solar in CAISO's queue. In Texas, we project 1,540 MW of wind, 3,390 MW of solar and 8,380 MW of gas-fired generation, both combined cycle and peaking, mostly from the development pipeline through 2025.

Given that CAISO and ERCOT are high in solar and wind penetration respectively, how would this shape their hourly power pricing forecasts? 

  • Examine solar and wind generation, and power price forecasts by the hour 
  • Review 2020 generation-weighted prices: wind vs. solar
  • Identify the development queue of renewable resources (2021-2023) in both markets

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence. Images for display purposes only.

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