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S& Global Platts Crude & Refined Products Market

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Testing Signals from the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI®) for Corporate Bond Portfolio Adjustment


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This research demonstrates how leading economic indicators - PMI can hep improve returns for Corporate Bond Portfolios.

We go beyond its economic interpretation to extract signals and enhance investment decision-making. We take advantage of two key attributes of the PMI surveys: the consistent methodology and its frequent publication cadence and by doing this, build sector-specific views, updated monthly, to determine the allocation of funds for a corporate credit portfolio.

We tracked returns using European iBoxx indices and overall benchmark iBoxx EUR Corporate IG Index.The research shows how PMI data can help achieve excess returns at different levels of risk appetite, with returns of up to 18% over a 16-year period, and strategies with no draw-down.This highlights the predictive capabilities of the PMI for credit markets.

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