S&P Global Market Intelligence originally documented a shadow fleet estimate in May 2023 and produced a follow up in May 2024 in respect to Russian oil. The number of vessels in the shadow fleet since 2023 has risen steadily.

Oil exports by vessels deemed to be within the shadow fleet of ships continue to divest from the use of formally covered services.

A recent S&P Global Commodity Insights report noted more than 80% of Russian exports are potentially shipped outside of the Group of Seven (G7) countries' oil price cap. Additionally, Iranian oil exports to mainland China continue to be delivered in record numbers in early 2025. Russian and Iranian cargoes are often transported using tactics to hide the real origin of the shipment, such as multiple ship-to-ship transfers. In response to this, the US has placed large numbers of vessels and owners on sanction watchlists to restrict the movement of these ships.

Despite regulatory action, the shadow fleet continues to operate across Russian, Iranian and Venezuelan oil cargoes, therefore, firms operating within and close to the maritime industry need to remain vigilant to the formation and operation of the shadow fleet in 2025.

Please fill in the form to download the comprehensive analysis.