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S& Global Platts Crude & Refined Products Market

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Black Sea escalation — Realistic disaster scenario

Analyzing potential impacts on commercial shipping

Realistic disaster scenarios are useful tools for assessing exposure and planning for potential outcomes that may otherwise be overlooked.

Russia’s Novorossiysk port and terminal and the Ukrainian ports of Odesa, Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk on the Black Sea are key commercial locations for export of commodities critical for the global market, including grain, fertilizer and oil products.

This paper analyzes the current state of play with regard to commercial shipping traveling in and out of these ports; presents a high-impact, lower-likelihood scenario in which escalating conflict in the Black Sea disrupts operations at these four ports; and finally examines the potential impacts across commercial vessel types, charterers and operators.

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