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S& Global Platts Crude & Refined Products Market

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Q4’25 Outlook for U.S. Commercial Bank Performance and M&A: Famine to Feast


Duration: 1 hour

Banks' earnings have remained healthy through the first half of the year, buoyed by continued margin expansion, steady, but unspectacular loan growth and benign credit quality. Earnings growth could prove more challenging in the second half of 2025 however, as the lagging impact of tariffs slows growth and weighs on the consumer. Those emerging earnings headwinds, along with clean credit quality industrywide, could provide further support for stronger bank M&A activity as institutions seek ways to grow. Bank M&A has gone from famine to feast in 2025 and is on track to reach the highest level in three years, as buyers see an opportunity to capitalize on a less restrictive regulatory environment and faster closing timelines.

Join S&P Global Market Intelligence and leading bank M&A advisors as we review recent deal motivations, metrics and the outlook for activity in 2026.


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Nathan Stovall (Moderator)

Head of FIG Research
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Scott Anderson

Head of KBW Investment Banking & Co-Head of Stifel Investment Banking

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Bill Burgess

Managing Director and Co-Head of FIG Investment Banking
Piper Sandler

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Mitchell S. Eitel

Managing Partner, Financial Services Group
Sullivan & Cromwell

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Mark J. Menting

Partner
Sullivan & Cromwell


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Q4’25 Outlook for U.S. Commercial Bank Performance and M&A: Famine to Feast

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