Q3 '25 Outlook for U.S. Commercial Bank Performance and Fintech: Finding Optimism Through The Volatility

US banks’ net interest margins are poised to expand as funding costs move lower, while earning assets mature and are replaced with higher-yielding loans and securities. Heightened tariff-related anxiety will weigh on loan growth and credit quality and could threaten earnings growth in 2025, but the worst case fears in the investment community appear to have subsided and banks still expect to benefit from deregulation.

The fintech sector should benefit from a friendlier regulatory environment as well. Federal Banking regulators have said they will be more open-minded toward innovation and technology adoption by creating a more transparent approach to fintech partnerships and digital assets and tokenization, while addressing growing technology costs for community banks. The regulatory posture has renewed optimism for banks' efforts to collaborate with fintechs and participate in real-time payments.

During this webinar, the S&P Global Market Intelligence Research team will present their proprietary projections for commercial bank performance and lead us in a discussion about how banks can capitalize on the current opportunities to accelerate their technology adoption.

We will examine:

• Deposit and liquidity trends for US banks and forecasts for future performance

• Outlook for loan growth and credit quality

• Profitability and earnings expansion opportunities over the next 6-12 months.

• Banking as a service: friend or foe?

• Stablecoins: state of the market and a look at where banks can play in this arena.

• Payment trends: the evolving market opportunity for financial institutions and fintechs integrating with instant payment networks.

Speakers

Maureen McKenna (Moderator)

Head of Partnerships and Business Development
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Jordan McKee

Research Director Fintech
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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Nathan Stovall

Director of FIG Research
S&P Global Market Intelligence

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