Commodity price forecasts — Analysts remain optimistic for 2017

A strong start for the commodity market in early 2017 seems to be continuing, with most of the S&P Capital IQ consensus price forecasts as of May 17 showing higher values than corresponding 2016 price averages. Most price forecasts have increased compared with last month's forecasts.

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Despite the drop in precious metals prices two weeks ago, prices have rebounded, and the next few years look promising based on positive price forecasts. Gold, silver, platinum, rhodium and palladium have higher 2017-2019 forecasts compared with their 2016 actual average prices.

Iron ore and copper prices have remained low over the past few weeks but are expected to recover in the fourth quarter, along with other metals prices, as meaningful "rebalancing" is shaping up across a number of sectors. Copper and iron ore are still expected to rise with 2017 forecasts of US$2.56/lb and US$64.11/t respectively. The copper price is forecast to rise 4.5% in 2018 and another 5.5% in 2019, but iron ore forecasts for the same years are headed in the opposite direction.

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Uranium finished 2016 at a low compared with 2015 averages with an annual average price of $25.72/lb. The commodity is mainly affected by excess supply, coupled with slower-than-expected progress in Japanese reactors coming back online. However, uranium is projected to become the next bull market as global demand rises.

Higher molybdenum and zinc prices were among the key factors in Southern Copper's 70% earnings increase in 1Q'17, while the 144.2% increase in KGHM Polska Miedź's first-quarter earnings was partly due to higher molybdenum prices. Forecast molybdenum and zinc prices for 2017 remain optimistic at US$7.27/lb and US$1.23/lb respectively.

Forecast prices for tin, lead and nickel also remain positive for 2017, at US$9.35/lb, US$1.01/lb and US$4.92/lb respectively. Cobalt and aluminum forecasts of US$18.35/lb and US$0.83/lb, respectively, for 2017 are also higher than their 2016 actual average prices.

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Commodity price forecasts
— High confidence in 2017 commodity prices

Gain vital insights to commodity prices
and minimize risk.

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Commodity price forecasts — High confidence in 2017 commodity prices

Gain vital insights to commodity pricesand minimize risk.

Form Header

Commodity price forecasts
— High confidence in 2017 commodity prices

Gain vital insights to commodity prices
and minimize risk.