Commodity Briefing Service - Iron Ore
Iron ore prices bottom out

This article is an extract of the monthly Commodity Briefing Service for Iron Ore which examines global iron ore market trends over the past month.

By Chris Hinde | 31 July 2017


Iron ore prices have fallen sharply this year, but although the market has now turned, S&P Global Market Intelligence says it remains amply supplied even in the face of insatiable Chinese imports and growing steel output.

Iron ore prices have bottomed out after a sharp four-month correction following the significant price rises recorded in 2016. In its inaugural Commodity Briefing Service (CBS) report on iron ore, S&P Global Market Intelligence examines the prevailing market conditions.

The July CBS report notes that iron ore stocks remain elevated but are now stable. It highlights the mixed H1 2017 output from the "big four" producers, with Vale and BHP recording year-over-year increases of 8.3% and 4.7%, respectively, but falls of 2.0% and 1.3% from Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group.



iron ore price chart
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence's mine operating-cost models, the mining industry as a whole now spends US$22/dmt less on producing iron ore than it did in 2013. This is attributed to tightened capital controls, renegotiated contracts and the exit of high cost supply. The production-weighted average cost for the seaborne market was only US$34/dmt in 2016.


iron ore stocks plateau in china


A continued global surplus, and projections for steady inventory levels, leads to a cautious market outlook over the next couple of years. The annual average price is forecast by S&P Global Market Intelligence to decline 13.0% in 2018 from the US$66.7/t average expected for this year, followed by a 1.6% fall in 2019.

The CBS report follows recent publication of "The Iron Ore Market 2017" by The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Material for this report, which examines the market for iron ore in 2016, was provided by S&P Global Market Intelligence.

The UNCTAD report examines last year's marked improvement in iron ore markets after the slower growth, lower ore prices and squeezed profit margins that the industry suffered in 2015

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